Forecasting territorially differentiated land-use transitions: Behavioural evidence from discrete choice experiments and diffusion modelling in Southern Italy

In contexts characterized by agricultural specialization and environmental pressures, varietal choices are not simply agronomic decisions, but shape land management and the transformation of rural landscapes. Therefore, the study aims to assess producers’ attitudes toward the use of local varieties and to forecast their rate of diffusion over space and time. This allows an analysis of the temporal dynamics associated with land-use transitions. The research analyses the case of Apulia, i.e. Italy's second-largest region in terms of vineyard area, through a combined approach. On the one hand, discrete choice experiments investigate the attitudes of producers towards landraces for sparkling wine production. On the other, the Bass diffusion model predicts the temporal trend of adoption and distinguishes between innovators and imitators. The Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) results identify four types of producers with different preferences and Willingness To Accept (WTA) levels, which range from 2500 € ha−1 to 11,400 € ha−1. The Bass model highlights a prevalence of the imitation effect (q = 11.7%) over the innovation effect (p = 2.3%). The adoption curve is characterized by slow initial penetration, acceleration after the tenth year and territorially differentiated diffusion by the thirtieth year (24% of farms). However, the trajectories are rapid in intermediate areas and slow or incomplete in intensive or marginal areas. These trajectories suggest territorially calibrated and time-sensitive land-use policies for land-use transitions, i.e. agricultural zoning and land banks for marginal areas, support for districts and cooperatives in intermediate areas, diversification incentives and supply chain contracts for intensive areas.