From framework to diagnostic composite indicator: the OECO_Sy model for SME innovation propensity in university-led open innovation ecosystems

This paper extends a previous conceptual proposal on the role of the Grant Office Service of the University of Foggia in open innovation ecosystems by introducing a determinant-level composite indicator for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. The proposed OECO\_Sy model transforms three diagnostic questionnaires into twenty normalized determinants and three coefficients: the Preliminary Innovation Propensity Coefficient (PIPC), the Management Innovation Propensity Coefficient (MIPC), and the Composite Coefficient of SME Innovation Propensity (CCSIP). The methodological contribution is twofold. First, the university role of Expert is formalized as a measurable, replicable and non-discretionary diagnostic function. Secondly, the transition from the Preparation State to the Formation State is operationalized through a six-category analysis of project briefs, so that quantitative diagnosis is translated into tailored open-innovation actions. The framework is applied to a pilot sample of ten SMEs in the TCOREC case study in the Province of Foggia. The CCSIP ranges from 0.503 to 0.763; in eight firms out of ten MIPC exceeds PIPC, indicating solid organizational conditions but weaker formalization of innovation and intellectual property. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis on Q.2 weights supports the robustness of the equal-weight baseline. The results are exploratory, but they show that OECO\_Sy can operate as a mathematically transparent decision-support model for university-led innovation ecosystems.