Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

Background: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)-II in isolated tricuspid surgery. Methods: Three hundred and eighty-three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false-positive fraction for a procedure. Results: Considering the 30-day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56-0.84) for CRS-score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE-II (min. 0.46-max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death. Conclusion: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.