Evolution of the paradigm and evaluation paths of rural development policies for a long­term view of marginal areas

A marked social, economic, and environmental heterogeneity characterizes the rural areas of the European Union (EU). Many important policies have recently been introduced which should help to give a new and/or better face to the future of rural areas in the EU. For example, the latest Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) 2021-2027, the European Green Deal, the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and the Farm to Fork policy focus directly and indirectly on rural development. In this regard, does the rural system have the skills and/or the tools to seize the opportunities dictated by the new policies? So, do the new policies ensure rural development in rural areas? Therefore, the research aims to understand if the recent digital and ecological transition policies can guarantee the rural development of marginal rural areas. The methodological approach is that of the evolutionary analysis of the concept of rural development, of the conceptual and methodological evolutionary analysis of the ex-ante evaluation, therefore, the evolution of the ex- ante evaluation within the regulatory and methodological tools, all accompanied by the study of the adequacy of current rural development policies. The aim is to identify if the new generation of policies will be able to favor rural development in marginal territories, thus understanding the factors of success and failure of the same, together with the opportunities and threats. This also means grasping the synergies between the various policies to be examined (CAP, NRRP, Cohesion Policy, Development and Cohesion Fund and other national and European policies) capable of improving (or not) the regional rural development of marginal areas.