Assessing SOC trends in Alta Murgia National Park with a novel non-standard discrete RothC model

Trends of soil organic carbon (SOC) are significant indicators for land and soil degradation. Decrease in SOC compromises the efforts to achieve by 2030, a land degradation neutral world, as required by Target 15.3 of the Seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by United Nations in September 2015. Differential models, as the Rothamsted Carbon model (RothC) [1], can be useful tools to predict SOC changes, taking into account the interactions among climate, soil and land use management. In this talk, we illustrate some results on the application of a novel nonstandard discretization [2] of the continuous RothC model [3] for assessing the SOC indicator in Alta Murgia National Park, a protected area in Apulia region in the south of Italy. A procedure for determining the initial plant input necessary to run the model is described. Moreover, in order to detect the factors that determine the size and direction of SOC changes, a local sensitivity analysis based on the so-called direct method is performed. This work received fundings from the REFIN project N.0C46E06B (Regione Puglia, Italy) and from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 871128 (H2020-eLTER-PLUS project).