Material flow and economic cost analysis of the Italian artisan bread production before and during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a humanitarian crisis and causes several socio-economic consequences, being Russia a key supplier of energy and food commodities. After a few weeks of war, the prices of the essential goods, already increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, have continued to boost. The present research applies the material flow analysis to assess the sustainability of the artisan bread production, comparing a baseline and a war scenario, before and during the aforementioned conflict, and estimates the economic costs associated with natural and energy resources. The analysis is based on primary data collected through semi-structured interviews among nine artisan bakeries and secondary data collected before and during the conflict. The economic assessment, which is applied to enhance the environmental management of sociometabolic systems, is conducted on the entire artisan bread produced in Italy in 2021 and the system boundaries consider a cradle-to-gate approach. The highest upsurge in input costs has been estimated in electricity (+400%), N fertilizer (+233%) and K2O (+152%). The average input cost variation has been evaluated at +232%. Possible opportunities to support production costs include the adoption of an alternative bread recipe, which reduces the supply of impacting resources without affecting the quality of the finished product, as well as the introduction of structural interventions to lower energy costs. The research could help both artisan bakers, to better manage resources, waste and related impacts under the economic and the environmental perspective, and public authorities, to define appropriate strategies to sustain the bread sector. Last, the research provides scholars with an original analysis of the economic costs in the artisan bread production, highlighting its suitability to evaluate the supply chain sustainability from cradle to gate.