Statistical limits in sonographic estimation of birth weight

PURPOSE: The accuracy of sonographic estimation of birth weight (EBW) is compromised by the precision of the biometrical measurements and the quality of the algorithms. This prospective study was to evaluate technical aspects to derive new equations for the EBW. METHODS: Three consecutive phases were carried out (1) to recruit a homogenous population, (2) to derive eight new algorithms using a multiple stepwise mathematical/statistical method, and (3) to test the accuracy of the developed equations. Only those patients with a singleton pregnancy who delivered within 48 h from the scan were considered for the analysis. RESULTS: The study population was made of 473 women. Four polynomial, two square root and two logarithmic algorithms were derived from a balanced study group of 200 women selected from the original study population. These formulas were subsequently applied and compared between them and showed a significant correlation with birth weight (p < 0.0001) and satisfactory statistical performances (r > 0.9), nevertheless they performed similarly to other equations previously published. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings define better the limitations associated with the intrinsic properties of algorithms and highlight that the possibility to improve the precision of sonographic measurements remains the only point at issue to increase the accuracy in the prediction of birth weight.