A FCMs approach to promote new business formation in rural areas under uncertainty conditions

In this paper we stressed the relevance of knowledge gained from local stakeholders’ perceptions to reduce the uncertainty related to the introduction of new business in rural areas. This view is coherent with the Cork Declaration which emphasizes the participatory approach to pursue a bottom-up model to foster an effective and sustainable socioeconomic rural development. Policy makers are enabled to select the most suitable and acceptable action plans. This is particularly important in rural contexts where local resources are limited and interdependent (i.e. no actors have sufficient power to unilaterally determine the success of the new project) and the risk of dispersion due to the uncertainty of the novelty is high. The empirical exercise we conducted, has demonstrated the suitability of the integrated adoption of FCMs and Social Network Analysis, as a tool to map the stakeholders’ perceptions and to identify the more appropriate policy action plans fitting the needs of the local communities. The semi-quantitative nature of cognitive maps allows stakeholders to express their perceptions by interacting each other through natural language. In addition, the numerical representation of the cognitive map provides the basis to mathematically identify the most sensitive drivers and to simulate policy scenarios for the project deployment. Considering that EU strongly emphasizes the role of the involvement of the local communities, of which LEADER Programme represents one of the most successful experiences, the proposed methodology seems to provide an operative tool supporting local development agencies (e.g. Local Action Groups) in the design of local development strategies.